The U.S. economy is sending mixed signals heading into the second half of 2026. Growth continues, but slower than hoped, while inflation ticks back up, especially in energy, hitting freight and logistics hardest. Add a tightening but complicated truckload market and a workforce showing real signs of strain, and one thing becomes clear: the next six months call for sharper reads and smarter talent decisions than the last.
At GESG, we’re keeping a close eye on the trends impacting your hiring decisions. Here’s what we’ve been seeing — and what we’re recommending in the back half of the year.
Growth is still positive, but slowing.
On the macro level, we’re still seeing growth, albeit at a slightly slower-than-hoped-for rate. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% yearly pace in early 2026. The Federal Reserve now expects 2.2% growth for the full year, down just a tick from earlier projections.
Prices, however, are rising too. Inflation reached 4.2% over the past year as of May 2026, the highest since April 2023. In plain terms, the cost of living is climbing again after a calmer stretch. Unsurprisingly, the biggest culprit is energy, tracing its issues to conflict overseas. Energy prices rose almost 4% in a single month and were up more than 23% over the year, impacting all industries but especially areas like freight, logistics, and supply chain.
The freight downturn is recovering… but there’s a catch.
Let’s start with the good news. After two down years for shipping demand (a freight index fell about 5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024), 2026 is tightening. The price to move a truckload on the open market hit a record in early June: near $3.83 a mile, above even the pandemic peak.
It’s not a simple matter, though. The tighter market is more about fewer trucks on the road, not increased demand. Carriers are turning down more loads than at any point since 2022. The reason is fewer trucks on the road (companies went under, and a new rule cut driver numbers), not a jump in freight volume. Meanwhile, intermodal shipping is lagging behind, leaving clear signs that this recovery is more complex than the top-line numbers may suggest.
Labor demand is high, but the supply isn’t keeping up.
There’s debate within the trucking industry as to whether there’s a shortage of drivers altogether, or if the issue is a shortage of high-quality, trusted drivers. Either way, one thing is clear: the supply chain workforce could use a refresh. The average truck driver is 47, only 7.5% of them are young Gen Z’ers, and big carriers may replace 90 to 95% of their drivers every year.
Meanwhile, the growth of supply chain demand is projected to seriously outpace the overall growth of the labor force. One projection suggests demand will rise by 1.34 million between now and 2035, while the labor force only grows by about 221,000, leaving a gap of over a million roles. Whether these exact numbers come to pass or not, it’s a clear indicator that transformative, forward-thinking leadership is more necessary than ever to navigate the big changes and possible shortages coming down the road.
What This Means for Your Talent Strategy
These numbers above aren’t just economic trivia in a vacuum; they’re having an impact on how you hire. Here’s how to translate them into action.
Hire for volatility, not just volume. The freight market’s “recovery” is more of a capacity squeeze: fewer trucks, not more demand. That means the leaders you need aren’t just capable of scaling operations. They need to be skilled at doing more with less, managing carrier relationships under pressure, and making sharp calls when intermodal and truckload trends diverge. When you’re screening candidates, probe for how they’ve navigated tight capacity markets before, not just growth markets.
Treat the aging workforce as a leadership problem. The leaders you bring in now need to be builders of pipelines, not just managers of headcount. Prioritize candidates who’ve demonstrated success with workforce development, apprenticeship models, or Gen Z recruitment. Remember: that looming talent gap will only widen if your leadership bench can’t attract new talent now.
Factor cost pressure into the role itself. With energy prices up and inflation reshaping margins across freight and logistics, the leaders you hire need fluency in cost-to-serve thinking alongside operational execution. Look for candidates who can speak credibly to fuel hedging, route optimization, and vendor renegotiation in the same breath as talent strategy.
The bottom line: this isn’t a market where you can hire the same profile that worked five years ago. The organizations that will win the next decade are the ones treating leadership hiring in supply chain, logistics, and transportation as a strategic bet on resilience.
Scott is one of the founders of GESG and achieved great success as an executive recruiter. He is currently responsible for all internal operations and for relationships with all Partners and Suppliers. His first-hand recruiting experience gives him a customer-focused perspective, enabling him to maintain a razor-sharp focus on our technology and system priorities. Scott works closely with other firms in our network as well as suppliers to ensure that everyone in our firm has the current technology and market research resources necessary to meet the needs and requirements of our clients, top talent, and associates.